Resident Evil Reboot Poised for Record Opening
Following a summer that set a $4.67B record, Warner Bros/Alcon's Practical Magic 2 failed to ignite the fall season last weekend. Yet Sony/Constantin's Resident Evil reboot, directed by Zach Cregger, may succeed where that film did not, tracking toward a domestic debut of $40M-$50M plus roughly $31M from overseas markets, for a worldwide total near $80M at the upper end.[S1]
Although expectations for Practical Magic 2 ran high given its broad awareness, a 38% critics' score prevented the older female demographic from growing. Likewise, casting Joey King and Maisie Williams failed to pull in viewers under 25. That doesn't mean the overall box office is suddenly struggling.[S1]
Resident Evil stands apart entirely: beyond the built-in franchise audience, it draws cinephiles, especially Cregger devotees, along with general horror enthusiasts. And notably, with a 96% certified fresh rating, it is the highest-rated entry in the franchise's 24-year run. Earlier Resident Evil installments all landed rotten scores with critics on Rotten Tomatoes.[S1]
Should it hit $80M globally, Resident Evil would surpass the worldwide opening of Weapons, which took in $70M (using reported figures rather than like-for-like comparisons). Across the prior seven films, the franchise has amassed over $1.2 billion worldwide, and 2010's Resident Evil: Afterlife holds the domestic franchise opening record at $26.6M.[S1]
International Rollout and Market Strategy
Sony International handles distribution in most territories, while Constantin covers German-speaking markets and Metropolitan takes French-speaking ones. Of 62 total overseas markets, Sony controls 58. Thailand, CIS and South Africa launch next weekend, Japan follows on October 9, and China gets the film later, an IP that has performed strongly there — 2016's The Final Chapter reported nearly $160M in that market. Eastern Europe has also proven a key region for the franchise.[S1]
On the international front, Sony's territories are projected to deliver roughly $23M-$24M, matching Weapons on like-for-like terms and 28 Years Later, while running 27% ahead of Evil Dead Rise, 34% above Smile 2, 45% above Saw X, 49% above Black Phone 2 and 84% above Sinners.[S1]
Traditionally, the Resident Evil franchise's strongest markets have included Japan (Sony's home territory), Germany (Constantin's), Mexico, France, Taiwan, Spain, South Korea, the UK, Italy, Thailand, Brazil and Australia. With this fresh interpretation, though, attention centers on whether SPRI can broaden the audience in markets such as the UK, Mexico, Japan, Australia, Spain, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Italy and Malaysia.[S1]
Domestic Release Details and Competition
Domestically, even a $40M debut would set a franchise record for Resident Evil. The $75M production opens at 3,000 sites, with Thursday previews beginning at 2 p.m. The open question is whether gamers will fully get behind Cregger's vision. He is a devoted fan of the game and approached the film with that passion, and has stated he never watched any earlier Resident Evil movies. Warner Bros briefly pursued his reboot when the Constantin rights became available, but Sony secured them. Anything above $43.5M would mark Cregger's best domestic opening, topping last year's Weapons.[S1]
Vertical also releases its Sundance pickup The Weight this weekend, with Ethan Hawke and Russell Crowe, in 1,504 North American theaters and modest single-digit expectations. Previews begin at 7 p.m., featuring a nationwide Alamo Drafthouse simulcast plus a Q&A with Hawke, Julia Jones and director Padraic McKinley. AMC Dolby Cinema early-access shows Wednesday at 200 theaters count toward previews. Critics rate it 93% fresh. The action crime thriller follows a battle-scarred veteran hired during the Great Depression to help smuggle a gold fortune across 100 miles of impassable wilderness to save his remaining family.[S1]
Gkids opens StudioCanal and Aardman's Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom in 2,173 domestic theaters, with all 30 Rotten Tomatoes reviews positive. Practical Magic 2 is expected to decline between 50% and 60% in its second weekend based on audience scores, landing somewhere in the $12M-$15M range.[S1]
