August Fiscal Result
Argentina's national public sector closed August with a primary surplus of 1.990322 trillion pesos and a financial surplus of 635.529 billion pesos after accounting for debt interest payments, Economy Minister Luis Caputo announced. The financial result was 62.8% higher than in August of the previous year. Net interest payments on debt held within the public sector itself amounted to 1.354793 trillion pesos during the month.[S1][S2][S3]
With these figures, the national public sector accumulated over the first eight months of 2026 a primary surplus equivalent to roughly 1.1% of GDP and a financial surplus of about 0.2% of output. The result improved on the accumulated position through July, when the primary surplus stood at around 0.9% of GDP and the financial surplus at 0.1%.[S1][S2][S3]
Spending and Social Transfers
Primary spending in August fell 0.5% year-on-year in real terms, a much smaller decline than in July, when spending had dropped 7% above inflation compared with the same month of 2025. Within social programs, transfers to universities rose 9.7% in real terms. PAMI benefits grew 4.9%, the Universal Child Allowance 4.7% and non-contributory pensions 4.2%.[S1][S2]
Caputo stressed that fiscal balance was maintained despite tax reductions implemented since the start of the administration, which he estimated at around three points of GDP. The 2027 budget bill presented to Congress this week envisages keeping a financial surplus next year.[S1][S2]
IMF Targets and 2027 Outlook
According to Fernando Marull y Asociados, the government projects a primary surplus of 1.3% of GDP and a financial surplus of 0.2% for both 2026 and 2027. For next year it expects primary spending to rise 0.2 points of output, mainly due to real growth in pensions, while subsidies would continue to fall and capital spending would remain compressed.[S1]
In the 2027 budget bill, the Economy Ministry said the primary surplus forecast for 2026 will be 1.3% of GDP, totaling 15.5 trillion pesos, which implies it will narrowly miss the target. The program sets a mandatory goal of 1.4% of GDP, equivalent to 16.2 trillion pesos, a shortfall of about 700 billion pesos. The favorable result for next year is put at 18.4 trillion pesos (1.3% of GDP), with interest payments of 3.3 trillion pesos (0.2% of GDP).[S2]
